Hubei Energy (000883): Thermal power issuance and guarantee, contribution to revenue growth, multiple factors to ensure high growth next year’s performance
Event Overview The company released its third quarter 2019 performance report: reporting that the two companies achieved operating income of 120.
68 ppm, an increase of 33 over the same period last year.
5%; operating cost is 92.
5.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37.
74%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.
14 ppm, an interval of 12 from the same period last year.
95%, basic profit returns 0.
23 yuan, an increase of 14.
Analyzed and judged that the thermal power generation and guaranteed supply and supplementary units put into operation resulted in further increase in power generation. According to the information disclosed to the Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission’s Electricity Dispatching Office, the annual average water supply segment in Hubei Province was dry during the first three quarters, causing displacement of hydropower generation.
Taking September as an example, the average amount of incoming water in the Hanjiang River basin in Hubei Province is 30% more than the average for many years, and the average annual inflow of waterfalls in the mainstream of the Yangtze River and Qingjiang River is 20% to 80%.
The first three quarters of Hubei’s hydropower generation (excluding the Three Gorges) was 311.
7.2 billion kWh, a decline of 16 per year.
The company’s hydropower units are all located in the Qingjiang River Basin. Due to the dry water, the company’s 杭州桑拿 hydropower generation capacity was 55 in the first three quarters.
2.3 billion kWh, a decrease of 23 per year.
In order to ensure the continuous supply of electricity, Hubei Province’s thermal power plants issued additional supplements in a timely manner. The first three quarters of Hubei Province’s thermal power generation capacity was 1116.
8.1 billion kWh, an increase of 20 in ten years.
The company’s Ezhou Phase III # 5 and # 6 units (2 million kilowatts) have been put into production one after another. According to the company’s announcement, the first half of the Ezhou power plant’s power generation significantly exceeded the initial planned progress, setting a record high.
Increasing demand for thermal power in the province and the commissioning of additional units by the company have resulted in a significant increase in the company’s thermal power generation.
From January to September, the company achieved thermal power generation of 133.
9.6 billion kWh, an increase of 77 in ten years.
13%, making up for the impact of interference from hydropower generation. In the first three quarters, the company completed a total of 201 power generation.
2.6 billion kWh, an increase of 26 in ten years.
Hydropower performance rebounded at the bottom of the synapse, and Ezhou Phase III may obtain high power generation companies’ auction rights to develop the Jiangpinghe Hydropower Plant in 2015. The hydropower station is a leading hydropower station in the five steps of the main stream planning of the Huangshui River, with an installed capacity of 450,000 kilowatts., The annual average power generation is 9.
600 million kWh. It is expected that the water will be stored in the sluice during the year and will be put into operation in 2020.
2019 is a rare dry year in the Qingjiang River basin in the past ten years, and we believe that it is a high probability event that the water supply in the river basin next year is better than this year.
New hydropower units have been put into operation and the water supply in the river basin has improved, and hydropower performance has promoted bottoming out.
In the peak season of power demand, although Hubei has additional thermal power generation guarantees, but it is still insufficient for the province’s continuous power demand, but it has kept Hubei in a state of net transfer of power resources (excluding the Three Gorges).
The company’s Ezhou Phase III project is one of the three key thermal power projects in Hubei Province. It is also the largest single-unit thermal power unit with the highest parameters in Hubei Province.
Supporting the construction of Ezhou Phase III is the 500 kilovolt Ezhou Power Plant Phase III grid connection project. This transmission line sends electricity to Wuhan Donghu New Technology Development Zone, which effectively guarantees the Ezhou Phase III power consumption and comprehensively considers the power of Hubei Province.According to the supply and demand situation and the construction of supporting transmission facilities, we expect that the third stage of Ezhou will obtain cracked power generation.
Haoji Railway may reduce fuel costs. Explosive growth of Jingzhou Coal Terminal. Haoji Railway was opened on September 28. Divided from traditional transportation methods, Haoji Railway has certain advantages in transportation costs. According to our calculations, it compares with the traditional “Daqin Line +Haijin River “, the national railway from northern Shaanxi to Hubei route classification, transporting coal to Jingzhou Port via Haoji Railway can save about 30 yuan / ton.
The current pricing of the Haoji Railway is higher than expected. There is no cost advantage in transporting coal directly to Jiangxi through Haoji, and the volume of the Haoji Railway needs to rely on the Jingzhou Coal Terminal.
The Jingzhou coal iron and water combined transportation storage and distribution base is the first station that meets the Yangtze River after Haoji descends south. It also cooperates with other coal terminals on the Yangtze River. Its construction speed changes and the planning capacity is the largest.The terminal is the key to Haoji’s capacity increase. After it was put into operation, the explosion of the Jingzhou coal terminal led to an explosive growth in a short time.
Investment proposal The company’s Ezhou power plant is the largest coal-fired power plant in Hubei Province. Benefiting from the commissioning of the third-phase Ezhou unit and the construction of supporting facilities for power consumption, the company’s thermal power generation is expected to continue to grow in the future.
Incoming water in the Qingjiang River Basin is likely to improve and the Jiangpinghe Power Station will be put into operation in 2020, and the company’s hydropower performance will rebound.
The outbreak of the Jingzhou Coal Wharf, which is the key baseline for the south of Haoji, is constantly growing.
Taking the above factors into consideration, we maintain our profit forecast and target price unchanged. We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-21 to be 148.
91 ppm / 153.
82 ppm / 155.
29 trillion, an increase of 20 each year.
99% / 3.
30% / 0.
96%; net profit attributable to mothers is 17.
73 ppm / 23.
9.7 billion / 26.
08 million yuan, an increase of -2 in ten years.
09% / 35.
17% / 8.
The corresponding EPS are 0.
27 yuan, 0.
37 yuan, 0.
40 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warnings 1) Downward electricity prices; 2) Incoming water in Qingjiang River Basin continues to be dry; 3) Haoji-Railway Railway fails to meet expectations; 4) Jingzhou Coal Terminal does not meet expectations or charges; 5) Macroeconomic systemic risks.